After the 12-day war, Iranians know they cannot be freed with Israeli and western bombs
The surprise attack launched by Israel against Iran halted advanced negotiations between Tehran and US President Donald Trump over Iran’s nuclear programme.
As an act of diplomatic sabotage it was effective, bringing the Western world back into support for Israel after growing criticism of its genocide in Gaza. But as a war it was inconclusive, even after the US stepped in to back Israel by bombing Iran’s nuclear sites.
The war is not seen as over by either side. More than 1000 people were killed by Israel in Iran, with widespread destruction in Tehran and of Iran’s energy infrastructure.
If the Gaza genocide had not already proved it, the war showed once again that the so-called rules based US-led international order is a sham.
It showed that the old WMD lie could be wheeled out to use against Iran, just as it was used against Iraq 20 years ago.
It showed that European politicians would come out to support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites by the United States, and repeat evidence-free claims about Iran presenting an immediate nuclear threat to the West.
We heard the German chancellor thanking Israel for doing the West’s ‘dirty work’ by attacking Iran in the middle of its negotiations with the United States
We saw a whole range of deception with the US pretending they had nothing to do with the strikes only for Trump to then reveal he was in on the attack plan all along.
Scientists were killed in their beds along with their families, as were civilians and of course Iranian commanders. All war crimes under international law.
We know what western backed regime change looks like: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan. Prolonged conflict, failed states, sectarian violence. This must be avoided.
Israel is interested in dismembering and crippling all the states around it, and has done so in Syria, and Lebanon.
Inside Iran, reports suggest a rallying around to defend the nation from attack rather than support for regime change – now the mask has been ripped off Israeli propaganda about supporting Iranian freedom.
“Before this war, I was one of those people who even welcomed the idea of a foreign attack to change the establishment. I was naive,” said one Tehrani, Siamak, to Middle East Eye.
The war has worsened the situation for millions of Iranians. Already, around 80 percent of Iranians suffer from food insecurity, and over 60 percent live in or near poverty.
Shortages caused by sanctions have deepened following Israeli attacks on natural gas plants, oil depots and refineries.
Continued Israeli or US attacks risk turning Iran into a militarised, failed state.
Diaspora division
There are divisions in the diaspora over the war. Some eight million Iranians living abroad play a significant role in shaping global perceptions of Iran, and that their views significantly influence public opinion within Iran.
On this occasion, the call from pro-Israel and monarchist Iranians to use the attacks for regime change fell on deaf ears. Thousands of Iranians and their allies marched in London against the war, with a just few dozen backing Israel’s attacks.
Military response
Iran has long lacked major allies among the world powers, and has used its ‘axis of resistance’ to protect itself from regional and global foes. However that axis has been largely broken since October 2023, with Hezbollah severely weakened, Syria’s Bashar Assad toppled, and only Yemen’s Houthis still a strong actor in the Red Sea.
One consequence of the war may be a stronger alliance emerging between Iran and China.
90 percent of Iran’s oil exports flow to Beijing – and this partnership is strengthening.
Iran has now acquired Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries to rebuild defences destroyed by Israel during the 12-day war, sources have told Middle East Eye.
This could become a US-China war by proxy, as already seen in the Ukraine-Russia war.
UK role and peace movement
We know the UK government under Keir Starmer will back a war on Iran, as it has backed the forever war in Ukraine. Starmer’s main function as PM has been to increase military spending, cuddle up to Trump rather than challenge his policies, and most heinously, back Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
It’s up to the peace and labour movement to oppose any UK involvement in such a war on Iran, which will be even more disastrous than Iraq and Afghanistan.
Iranians must choose their own future. We must show solidarity with their struggles against the regime, such as the women, life freedom movement, and its victories that are seen today, with enforced hijab no longer obeyed or enforced as it once was.
Iranians will win freedom without western and Israeli bombs.
Joe Gill is a journalist at Middle East Eye.
This is the speech he delivered at the fringe meeting of Liberation affiliate CODIR at Unite Delegate Conference in Brighton last week.
